One major signing for the Phillies, one major mystery around Shohei Ohtani

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Aaron Nola stays in Philly, and Shohei Ohtani’s an MVP, but how much longer will he be a two-way player? Meanwhile, trade season is definitely upon us. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to the Windup!
Aaron Nola stays with Phillies
Yesterday, Aaron Nola became this offseason’s first big free-agency chip to land, signing a seven-year deal worth $172 million to stay in Philadelphia. Nola, who turned 30 in June, is a home-grown success story. Debuting at age 22, he has been one of the most dependable pitchers in the league, and over the last five full (non-2020) seasons, he has averaged 32.6 starts per season.
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As Matt Gelb writes, this contract sets him up to become one of the Phillies’ all-time greats, likely shooting him past Steve Carlton’s mark of 15 years with the team and near the top of a number of team records.
For fans of other teams, there might be a temptation to think that Nola’s $24.6 AAV means that the starting pitching market might make other starting pitchers a bit more affordable than expected. Ehhhh, probably not, and this sentence from Gelb’s story explains why:
“Other clubs made offers to Nola, and although sources indicated Nola could have earned more money with another team, it’s unclear how much more he left on the table.”
As Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak put it: “It does sound like there’s a really strong desire (by Nola) to go back to Philly.”
Another indication that this isn’t really a market-setting signing? It happened before Shohei Ohtani signed. Teams tend to work from the top down when filling their free-agent needs, ensuring they have the needed budget to sign their most-desired targets. And most of the teams that are in the market for a big-name starting pitcher are, by extension, definitely interested in signing a unicorn of a two-way player, even if he won’t even pitch in 2024.
With more on that, here’s Ken.
Ken’s Notebook
(Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports)From my story today about Shohei Ohtani’s free-agent value:
Occasionally after one of his rare poor pitching performances, Ohtani would enter the Angels’ dugout and joke, “Maybe just hit.” As in, maybe just give up pitching altogether and focus on the offensive side of the game.
Ohtani plans no such thing. His agent, Nez Balelo of CAA, is telling clubs interested in Ohtani as a free agent that he intends to remain a two-way player. But around the Angels, the common belief was that the Japanese superstar enjoys hitting more than pitching. And the reality of his current circumstance is that, after undergoing surgery in September to repair a damaged ligament in his pitching elbow, he will not pitch in 2024.
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The biggest question in baseball — what is Ohtani worth? — remains unchanged. But the uncertainty surrounding Ohtani’s future as a pitcher after his second major elbow surgery in five years makes his free agency perhaps even more complex than it was before.
Interviews with seven executives from teams interested in Ohtani, all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity because the collective-bargainin agreement prohibits club officials from commenting on free agents, revealed a variety of opinions on the type of contract he will command, his potential impact on a team’s business and yes, his pitching future.
“I think he will come back. I think he will pitch very, very successfully for a period of time,” an AL executive said. “What I need to understand is, what is his desire to pitch? How long does he want to pitch? Nez is going to say one thing. But at the root of it, I think this guy’s a hitter. I think that’s what he loves. I don’t know how long he wants to pitch and how long he can successfully continue to do that.”
Said an NL executive, “I’ll bet on him returning. I just don’t know how long to make the bet. That’s the hard part. What’s the staying power?”
Teams have no idea, which makes it all but impossible to evaluate what Ohtani might contribute as a pitcher in 2025 and beyond. Ohtani, though, figures to at least provide some value on the mound, enabling him to continue as one of the rarest, best and most marketable players in the game’s history.
Unanimous MVPs, history made
Awards season has finally come to a close, with Ohtani (AL) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (NL) taking home the MVP awards. It’s the first time that both awards have been unanimous.
- For Ohtani, who hit .304 with 44 home runs at the plate and went 10-5 with a 3.14 ERA on the mound, the unanimity was hardly a surprise. For all the postseason heroics by Corey Seager of the Rangers, he only played 119 regular-season games. Ohtani only played in 135, but his 10.0 bWAR was significantly higher than Seager’s 6.9 and Seager’s teammate Marcus Semien, at 7.4. Semien did play all 162 games, but the fact that Ohtani (while healthy) was also one of the best pitchers in the game put him squarely in the lead.
- Perhaps less expected was Acuña’s sweep. As mentioned here in late September, Mookie Betts had a better argument than the numbers might have suggested at face value. In the end, however, Acuña’s numbers were too gaudy to be refuted. Acuña not only became the sport’s fifth member of the 40/40 club (home runs and stolen bases), he also became its first 40/50, 40/60 and ultimately 40/70 player (41 and 73, by season’s end). Betts, as expected, finished second, with his teammate Freddie Freeman finishing third.
- While we knew the top three finalists in each league, the full results weren’t released until after the winners were announced. It’s always a fun little game to go see who got a stray down-ballot vote. You can see the full results on MLB.com, but my two “didn’t expect to see you here” guys this year are Josh Naylor of Cleveland and TJ Friedl of Cincinnati — no disrespect to either player, or the great state of Ohio.
Non-tender deadline and lots of trades
Here are a few of the more interesting moves from around the league since we last spoke:
- The non-tender deadline came and went, and a new splash of free agents hit the market when their teams opted not to offer them contracts for the 2024 season. Perhaps the most fascinating is Brandon Woodruff, a 30-year-old two-time All Star whose ERA was just 2.28 last year, but who may not pitch next season as he recovers from shoulder surgery. The DBacks also non-tendered outfielder and former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, while the Mets let Daniel Vogelbach test the free-agency waters. Here’s a list of ten interesting names who were non-tendered, while the full list can be found here.
- The White Sox and Braves hooked up in a big-ish trade, with Chicago sending LHP Aaron Bummer to Atlanta for five players: RHP Michael Soroka, INF Nicky Lopez, INF Braden Shewmake, LHP Jared Shuster and RHP Riley Gowens. Some recognizable names, to be certain. Meanwhile, the Rockies acquired RHP Cal Quantrill from the Guardians for C Kody Huff. Keith Law breaks down both trades. Atlanta also traded RHP Kyle Wright to Kansas City for RHP Jackson Kowar.
- Other trades: The Padres and Guardians swapped relievers, the two Florida teams hooked up for a trade, the Brewers picked up OF Jake Bauers from the Yankees after flipping Abraham Toro to the A’s, and the Red Sox sent 2B Luis Urías to the Mariners for RHP Isaiah Campbell.
Handshakes and High Fives
It’s not just the pitch clock. The league is considering a number of minor rule changes and adjustments for 2024. The most interesting one to me: a proposal that infielders no longer be able to drop their knee to the ground to block a baserunner’s path to the bag.
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Brian Cashman says he doesn’t think his comments on Giancarlo Stanton will impact the Yankees’ attempts to sign free agent Japanese player Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who shares an agent with Stanton.
Grant Brisbee continues to profile free agents for the Giants. This time it’s third baseman Matt Chapman.
After the owners voted to approve the move from Oakland to Las Vegas, fans are still doing their best to fight the move. Evan Drellich spoke with A’s GM Dave Kaval about the various ramifications of the decision.
You asked, Jim Bowden answered: his responses to 25 fan-proposed trades.
As always, you can keep up with the Hot Stove madness by bookmarking our free agent tracker here.
Left-handed reliever and two-time All Star Zack Britton, who pitched 12 seasons for the Orioles and Yankees, has officially retired.
(Top photo of Aaron Nola: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
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